For someone like Jason Cheung, a 32-year-old entrepreneur running a small electronics firm in Hong Kong, the dream of selling to customers in New York or London is fading fast. A new survey shows that businesses like his are looking closer to home—mainland China and South Asia—for growth, as sky-high tariffs and trade barriers in the U.S. and Europe make those markets feel out of reach. This shift isn’t just about numbers; it’s about real people, from factory workers to startup founders, navigating a world where global trade feels more divided than ever.

The survey, conducted by a major bank in May 2025, asked thousands of Hong Kong business owners where they see their future. Half pointed to mainland China as their top choice for expansion, while a quarter picked South Asian countries like India or Thailand. Only one in five saw Europe as a priority, a big drop from years past. Why the change? The U.S. has slapped tariffs as high as 145%—and in some cases 245%—on goods from China, hitting Hong Kong firms caught in the crossfire. Europe’s not much easier, with new taxes on things like electric vehicles making exports costly. Add in skyrocketing shipping fees, and it’s no wonder businesses are rethinking their plans.

“I used to dream of selling my gadgets in the U.S.,” said Jason, whose company makes smart home devices. “Now, we’re focusing on Shenzhen and Singapore. It’s just easier—fewer taxes, less hassle.” Jason’s story is common. Hong Kong businesses are leaning on trade deals, like one with mainland China that cuts tariffs to zero, or agreements with Southeast Asian countries that make selling in places like Bangkok or Jakarta smoother. These nearby markets feel like a lifeline for small firms struggling to stay afloat.

This shift comes as global trade grows more fractured. Hong Kong has long been a bridge between East and West, but with the U.S. and China locked in a tariff war, that bridge is wobbling. Mainland China, with its huge population, and South Asia, with its fast-growing economies, offer new opportunities. A special economic zone linking Hong Kong with nearby Chinese cities like Guangzhou is a big draw, promising access to millions of customers. Trade agreements with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are also opening doors, letting businesses skip the steep costs of Western markets.

Not everyone’s thrilled, though. “South Asia’s exciting, but it’s a crowded market,” said Priya Khan, who runs a logistics firm in Hong Kong. “We’re betting big on India, but it’s tough to stand out.” Others, like economist David Lau, worry about leaning too heavily on China. “It’s a huge market, but it comes with risks—policy changes, economic swings,” he said. For regular people, the impact is real. Workers in Hong Kong’s factories and offices are hoping new markets mean more jobs, but some fear higher costs if businesses struggle. Recent market jitters, with stocks dipping after the latest U.S. tariff news, only add to the unease.

This pivot could change Hong Kong’s future. For folks like Jason, nearby markets mean a chance to grow without the headache of Western trade barriers. More business in China or India could create jobs and keep money flowing in a city where life isn’t cheap. But there’s a catch: if Hong Kong focuses too much on one region, it might lose its place as a global hub. Smaller firms could thrive but struggle against bigger players in crowded markets. The city’s leaders are pushing high-tech manufacturing and finance to keep up, but it’s a tough balancing act.

What’s next? Many firms are moving factories to places like Vietnam while keeping Hong Kong as their base for trade and banking. The government’s promoting tech and innovation to stay competitive. But big questions loom: Will trade tensions cool off, letting businesses reconnect with the West? Can Hong Kong keep its global edge while betting on its neighbors? For Jason Cheung and thousands like him, the answer lies in building a future closer to home, one sale at a time.